Black and white plumes have been billowing from the chimneys at the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican City for the past three days as fireworks experts tested the mechanism that will signal the election of Pope Francis’ successor.

Starting today, every time the billowing smoke comes out black, it will mean the 133 cardinal electors, scheduled to converge inside the chapel from today for the papal conclave, will continue voting.

And only when it is white, the Catholic church will have a new pope.

Vatican firefighters installed the chimney at the Sistine Chapel over the weekend, along with the small stove in which the cardinals will burn their crumpled-up ballots after each vote.

The voting continues, with one round on the first day and then up to four daily until the process is concluded, with a new pontiff being chosen by a majority of two-thirds plus one of the 133 electors.

Several factors are expected to influence the election of the next Pope, including the desired theological direction of the Church on thorny issues such as LGBTQ, celibacy, abortion, women ordination, the need for strong international diplomacy and the growing global presence of the Catholic Church in Asia and Africa.

The cardinals will likely consider the ideal age and tenure of the new Pope, as well as the need for someone with both personal charm and a measured approach to leading the Church.

As the preparations entered the final day yesterday, the Nairobi Catholic archdiocese affirmed that Kenya’s cardinal John Njue will not be among the papal electors due to ill health, despite being eligible for the exercise that will be closely followed across the globe.

Nairobi Archbishop Philip Anyolo said in a statement that the archdiocese had turned down an official invitation sent through the Apostolic Nunciature in Kenya due to Njue’s ill health.

“I hereby confirm although His Eminence John Cardinal Njue is eligible to participate and was officially invited through the Apostolic Nunciature in Kenya, the Apostolic Nuncio, in concurrence with the Office of the Archbishop of Nairobi, duly communicated to the competent office of the Holy See, that owing to his current health condition, His Eminence John Cardinal Njuee will be unable to travel to Rome and take part in the conclave,” Anyolo said.

Solemn duty

Anyolo, however, urged Catholic faithful to pray that the holy spirit may guide the cardinals as they undertake the solemn duty of electing the next Pope.

Last Friday, the People Daily had exclusively quoted the Vatican indicating that Cardinals Antonio Cañizares of Spain and Njue would not attend the conclave on medical grounds.

In their meetings before the conclave, the cardinals discussed whether they wanted a liberal-minded leader like the late Pope Francis, a traditionalist like his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, or someone with moderate tendencies.

Cardinals will also likely seek someone skilled in international diplomacy, with the world facing multiple conflicts and changing geopolitical dynamics. The church would also prefer someone not too young to ensure a relatively short tenure.

Ideology and geography will also play a role.

Francis was known to be spontaneous, and the church might be looking to elect someone more cautious in his reactions.

And, with the Catholic population growing in Asia and Africa, the cardinals may want to send the message that an Asian or African pope is more representative.

Personal charm, though, is another secret ingredient. Because many of the cardinals have rarely met, it is hard to know who might get along well with whom.

The next pope is likely to be the cardinal who, without appearing to do so, can convince the others that he can represent the Church globally and address its challenges: adapting to secularisation, and coping well with recent sex and financial scandals, as well as declining membership in the West.

Record population

As the cardinals converge in the Sistine Chapel for the historic exercise, this is the first time a conclave will go over the 120 mark of electors.

Of the 252 current cardinals, 135 are under the age of 80 and eligible to vote, two won’t attend for health reasons.

That leaves 133 voters, and a record 108 of them were appointed by Francis.

That doesn’t mean a progressive that follows in his footsteps will get the nod—many of the new cardinals hardly know each other and may not share his views—but it likely eliminates a hardcore conservative. A two-thirds majority is required.

For the first time ever, Europeans make up less than 50 per cent of the voting cardinals.

Italy leads with the number of voting cardinals, 17, followed by the US with 10 and Brazil with seven.

Perhaps more notable is the presence of more than two dozen cardinal electors from countries that have never voted for a pope, among them Rwanda, Myanmar and South Sudan, according to Vatican media.

Asia and Africa made the biggest leaps since the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis, no coincidence considering his outreach to those continents.

There has never been a pope from Asia, nor an African pope since the end of the Fifth Century. The three African popes before that – Victor I, Miltiades and Gelasius I – were believed to be Black and born during the Roman Empire. All three became saints.

Now one of the seemingly top candidates for the papacy is Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, an ally of Francis and a native of the Philippines, home to the largest Catholic population in Asia (about 85 million) and third biggest in the world. Hardly a list of contenders is published without including Tagle’s name.

Likewise, two African cardinals – Peter Turkson of Ghana and Fridolin Ambongo of the Democratic Republic of Congo, both advocates for social justice—are often mentioned as papabili, or potential candidates. They hail from fertile ground for the Church, which saw an increase of more than three per cent in African Catholics from 2022 to 2023, now totalling more than 280 million. That’s 20 per cent of the estimated 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide.

There was a time – 455 consecutive years, to be exact – when betting the new pope would be from Italy made for easy money. Now it’s a stiffer proposition.

The centuries-old tradition of Italian pontiffs ended when John Paul I unexpectedly died in 1978 and was succeeded by Polish-born John Paul II. The next two popes, Benedict XVI and Francis, were from Germany and Argentina, respectively.